Dundalk 1-1 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dundalk face Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Longford Town travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk in Premier Division (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 18 June 2021 at 20:45 UK time.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Dundalk, 0 for Longford Town and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2021, ended Dundalk 2–2 Longford Town — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.43 xG and Longford Town 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.942 / defence 1.217 | Longford Town attack 0.612 / defence 1.672. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.357. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.672 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dundalk's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.612 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Data: built from Dundalk's last 15 games and Longford Town's last 15.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.18 | Draw 3.51 | Longford Town 3.89. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 16 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 June 2021 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Dundalk 1.43 / Longford Town 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.942 / def 1.217 | Longford Town attack 0.612 / def 1.672 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Longford Town xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Longford Town kick off?
Dundalk vs Longford Town kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 18 June 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Dundalk 1 - 1 Longford Town.
Where is Dundalk vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Longford Town part of?
Dundalk vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 16) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 46% chance of winning, Longford Town a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dundalk and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Dundalk vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.94x the league average against Longford Town's defence at 1.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 15 games and Longford Town's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.51
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.44
1.01
Longford Town xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.01 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Dundalk (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 7 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dundalk's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 1, Longford Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2021: Dundalk 2-0 Longford Town.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dundalk and Longford Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Longford Town finished level at 1-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.43 xG and Longford Town 1.01 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Longford Town attack 0.61 / defence 1.67, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 26%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.