Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Drogheda United (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Drogheda United have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dundalk. A 0.50 PPG lead over Drogheda United (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 68% and Drogheda United 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 50% | Drogheda United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.30 xG and Drogheda United 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.913 / defence 1.341 | Drogheda United attack 0.885 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 1.195. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.453 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Dundalk games / 24 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 34% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 40%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Drogheda United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 70% | Drogheda United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 34% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Dundalk 1.30 / Drogheda United 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.913 / def 1.341 | Drogheda United attack 0.885 / def 1.453 | league avg home 0.980 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Drogheda United xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 1 - 2 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 34% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.91) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.89x) against Dundalk's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 22/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.90
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.72
1.42
Drogheda United xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.42 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 7W 6D 9L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Drogheda United's form line: 7W 6D 9L from 22 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Dundalk against 1.23 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 4W 3D 4L from 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.50 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Drogheda United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Drogheda United away?
Drogheda United's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.27 PPG; Drogheda United away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 73%, Drogheda United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Dundalk) and 54% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Drogheda United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Dundalk's games and 46% of Drogheda United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Dundalk's recent games and 54% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Drogheda United edge out Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Dundalk 1-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.30 xG and Drogheda United 1.42 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.91 / defence 1.34 against Drogheda United attack 0.89 / defence 1.45, drawn from 22/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 34% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 40%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 50%, Drogheda United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.23 PPG, Drogheda United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.