Dundalk 2-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.80 xG and Drogheda United 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.919 / defence 1.245 | Drogheda United attack 1.131 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 0.719 / away 1.160. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Dundalk games / 6 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 17% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 56%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Drogheda United 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Drogheda United (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 17% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Dundalk 0.80 / Drogheda United 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.919 / def 1.245 | Drogheda United attack 1.131 / def 1.215 | league avg home 0.719 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Drogheda United xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 2 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 17% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.92) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (1.13x) against Dundalk's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
17%
5.73
26%
3.80
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.44
1.63
Drogheda United xG
5.73
17%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
3%
29.34
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.63 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 2-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.80 xG and Drogheda United 1.63 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.92 / defence 1.25 against Drogheda United attack 1.13 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 17% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 56%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.