Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dundalk (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dundalk face Drogheda United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Drogheda United (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Drogheda United have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Dundalk. A 0.80 PPG lead over Drogheda United (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Drogheda United in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Dundalk, 1 for Drogheda United and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 70% and Drogheda United 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 61% | Drogheda United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.95 xG and Drogheda United 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.021 / defence 1.098 | Drogheda United attack 0.910 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.281. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Dundalk games / 59 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 52% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 24%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Drogheda United 4.17. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Drogheda United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jul 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 52% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Dundalk 1.95 / Drogheda United 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.021 / def 1.098 | Drogheda United attack 0.910 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Drogheda United xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 10 July 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 1 - 2 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 52% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Record (8 meetings): Dundalk 3W | Draws 4 | Drogheda United 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Drogheda United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.02) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.91x) against Dundalk's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 23/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.17
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.23
1.28
Drogheda United xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
3%
29.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.28 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 9W 8D 6L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Drogheda United's form line: 5W 7D 11L from 23 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dundalk are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Drogheda United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 2W 2D 7L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.17 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Drogheda United in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Drogheda United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 9W 8D 6L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Drogheda United away?
Dundalk's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.82 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Drogheda United 2-3 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Dundalk, 73% for Drogheda United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Dundalk and 64% for Drogheda United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Drogheda United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Dundalk's games and 73% of Drogheda United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dundalk's matches and 64% of Drogheda United's.
Do Dundalk and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Dundalk 1-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.95 xG and Drogheda United 1.28 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Drogheda United attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 23/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 52% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 24%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Drogheda United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 61%, Drogheda United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Drogheda United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.