Dundalk 4-2 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dundalk face Drogheda United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 July 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Dundalk's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dundalk's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Drogheda United (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Drogheda United have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Dundalk against 0.60 for Drogheda United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Dundalk edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2024, ended Dundalk 1–2 Drogheda United — a Drogheda United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 46% versus Drogheda United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 44% | Drogheda United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.27 xG and Drogheda United 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.646 / defence 0.860 | Drogheda United attack 0.851 / defence 1.577. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 0.921. Dundalk's attack rating of 0.646 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Drogheda United's defence rating of 1.577 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dundalk's projected output up. Data: built from Dundalk's last 59 games and Drogheda United's last 59.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 51% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 20%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.96 | Draw 3.40 | Drogheda United 5.07. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Drogheda United's lower xG of 0.67 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Drogheda United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 0% (last 10 home games) | Drogheda United 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 24 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 July 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 51% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Dundalk 1.27 / Drogheda United 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.646 / def 0.860 | Drogheda United attack 0.851 / def 1.577 | league avg home 1.250 / away 0.921 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Drogheda United xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 12 July 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 4 - 2 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 24) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 51% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.65) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.85x) against Dundalk's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 59 games and Drogheda United's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.40
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.95
0.67
Drogheda United xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
6%
18.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.67 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 21W 14D 24L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Drogheda United's form line: 13W 19D 27L from 59 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Dundalk against 0.98 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.69 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 10D 6L).
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 5W 7D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.05 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Drogheda United
Blended
Dundalk (Home) vs Drogheda United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Blended
Drogheda United
Blended
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 13W 19D 27L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Drogheda United away?
Dundalk's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.69 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Drogheda United 2-3 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 41%, Drogheda United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Dundalk) and 62% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 31% of games; Drogheda United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Drogheda United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Drogheda United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Dundalk's recent matches and 59% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dundalk and Drogheda United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Dundalk's recent games and 62% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Drogheda United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Dundalk's recent matches and 69% of Drogheda United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 4-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.27 xG and Drogheda United 0.67 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Drogheda United outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.65 / defence 0.86 against Drogheda United attack 0.85 / defence 1.58, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 51% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 20%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 44%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Drogheda United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.31 PPG, Drogheda United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.