Dundalk 3-2 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Drogheda United have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Dundalk against 1.10 for Drogheda United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus Drogheda United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Drogheda United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.44 xG and Drogheda United 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.215 / defence 1.143 | Drogheda United attack 0.826 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.258. Data: 47 Dundalk games / 47 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 31%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Drogheda United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 40% | Drogheda United 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dundalk 1.44 / Drogheda United 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.215 / def 1.143 | Drogheda United attack 0.826 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Drogheda United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 3 - 2 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 43% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.22) and Drogheda United's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.83x) against Dundalk's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.84
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.62
1.19
Drogheda United xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.19 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 30W 21D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Drogheda United's form line: 21W 19D 32L from 72 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Dundalk are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Drogheda United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.94 PPG from 36 outings (21W 7D 8L).
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 7W 9D 20L from 36 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 21W 19D 32L in their last 72 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Drogheda United away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Drogheda United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 50% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Drogheda United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Drogheda United 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 3-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.44 xG and Drogheda United 1.19 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Drogheda United outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.22 / defence 1.14 against Drogheda United attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 43% | Draw 26% | Drogheda United 31%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Drogheda United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.