Drogheda United 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Drogheda United face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
St Patrick's Athl. travel to Weavers Park to take on Drogheda United in Premier Division (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Drogheda United have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Drogheda United's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Drogheda United) versus 1.60 (St Patrick's Athl.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 44% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.44 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.057 / defence 1.296 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.988 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.146. Drogheda United's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Data: built from Drogheda United's last 41 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 42.
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 36% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.74 | Draw 3.83 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Drogheda United 50% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 36% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Drogheda United 1.44 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.057 / def 1.296 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.988 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.47
St Patrick's Athl. xG
60%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Drogheda United 0 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 36% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Drogheda United's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Drogheda United's last 41 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.83
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.91
1.47
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.47 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 19W 22D 31L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 37W 12D 23L from 72 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Drogheda United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 36 home games (12W 12D 12L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 17W 6D 13L from their last 36 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Drogheda United are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Drogheda United (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Drogheda United
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 games (1.10 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.33 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Drogheda United.
Drogheda United's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
4
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Drogheda United have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Drogheda United 0-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Drogheda United) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Drogheda United's recent games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 69% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 7, as Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.44 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.06 / defence 1.30 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 36% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.