Derry City 2-4 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host Waterford at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derry City — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derry City have posted 4W 4D 2L at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.10 PPG versus Waterford's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Derry City hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Waterford, with 1 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Derry City and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Derry City in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 58% versus Waterford 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 46% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.21 xG and Waterford 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.023 / defence 0.733 | Waterford attack 1.082 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.251. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Derry City's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Derry City games / 58 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 64% | Draw 21% | Waterford 15%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Waterford 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 50% | Waterford 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jul 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 64% | Draw 21% | Waterford 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Derry City 2.21 / Waterford 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.023 / def 0.733 | Waterford attack 1.082 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Derry City (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Waterford xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Waterford kick off?
Derry City vs Waterford kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 3 July 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Derry City 2 - 4 Waterford.
Where is Derry City vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Waterford part of?
Derry City vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 64% chance of winning, Waterford a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Derry City and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
Record (9 meetings): Derry City 6W | Draws 1 | Waterford 2W.
What form are Derry City and Waterford in?
Derry City (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Waterford (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derry City's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.75
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Derry City xG
Total xG
3.21
0.99
Waterford xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
11%
9.16
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
2%
62.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Derry City and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Derry City and 0.99 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 24W 20D 15L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waterford's form line: 15W 14D 30L from 59 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (14W 11D 5L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 7W 5D 18L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.20 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Waterford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Waterford in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 24W 20D 15L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while Waterford have gone 15W 14D 30L in their last 59 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Waterford away?
Derry City's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.77 PPG; Waterford away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Derry City or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Waterford in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Derry City
1
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 6, Waterford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Waterford?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 60%, Waterford 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 57% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Waterford in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Derry City's games and 60% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 57% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Waterford tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Waterford in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Derry City 2-4 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.21 xG and Waterford 0.99 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.02 / defence 0.73 against Waterford attack 1.08 / defence 1.43, drawn from 60/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 64% | Draw 21% | Waterford 15%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 46%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.