Derry City 2-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derry City face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Dundalk (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Derry City's 2.20 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Dundalk's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Derry City have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Derry City have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Dundalk managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Derry City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Derry City and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 56% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derry City 44% | Dundalk 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.59 xG and Dundalk 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.153 / defence 0.988 | Dundalk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 0.956. Data: 37 Derry City games / 0 Dundalk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Derry City 55% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 17%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Dundalk 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 70% | Dundalk 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 55% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Derry City 1.59 / Dundalk 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.153 / def 0.988 | Dundalk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.200 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Derry City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Dundalk xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Dundalk kick off?
Derry City vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 February 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City 2 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Derry City vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Dundalk part of?
Derry City vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 55% chance of winning, Dundalk a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derry City and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
Record (7 meetings): Derry City 4W | Draws 3 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.15) and Dundalk's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.85x) against Derry City's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 37/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.54
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.39
0.80
Dundalk xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
4%
28.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Derry City and 0.80 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 18W 9D 9L from 36 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 5W 11D 20L across 36 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 9W 6D 3L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 1W 6D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Dundalk away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Derry City or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dundalk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
5
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Dundalk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Dundalk?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 61%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Derry City's games and 67% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Dundalk tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Dundalk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Derry City and Dundalk drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.59 xG and Dundalk 0.80 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Dundalk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 55% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 17%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 44%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.