Derry City 4-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 5 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dundalk (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Derry City, 0 for Dundalk and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Derry City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | Dundalk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.39 xG and Dundalk 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.213 / defence 0.878 | Dundalk attack 0.981 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.060. Data: 44 Derry City games / 43 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 47% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 24%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 4.17. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 30% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 47% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Derry City 1.39 / Dundalk 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.213 / def 0.878 | Dundalk attack 0.981 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Derry City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Dundalk xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Dundalk kick off?
Derry City vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 April 2024 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City 4 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Derry City vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Dundalk part of?
Derry City vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 47% chance of winning, Dundalk a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derry City and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
Record (3 meetings): Derry City 2W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.21) and Dundalk's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.98x) against Derry City's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.45
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.30
0.91
Dundalk xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Derry City and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Derry City and 0.91 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 36W 23D 13L from 72 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 19L across 72 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Derry City against 1.68 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 17W 13D 6L from 36 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 12W 9D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.51 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 games (1.82 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Dundalk away?
Derry City's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.78 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Derry City or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
5
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Dundalk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Dundalk?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 36%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derry City) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%; Derry City have failed to score in 31% of games; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Derry City's recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Dundalk tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Dundalk 4-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.39 xG and Dundalk 0.91 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.21 / defence 0.88 against Dundalk attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 47% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 24%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.82 PPG, Dundalk 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.