Derry City 0-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45%, yet in-form Derry City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derry City vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Bohemians meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derry City have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry City have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Derry City's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Derry City, 1 for Bohemians and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 4–3 with Derry City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.23 xG and Bohemians 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.206 / defence 1.062 | Bohemians attack 1.354 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.116. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Derry City games / 38 Bohemians games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Derry City 28% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 45%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 2.22. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 70% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 28% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Derry City 1.23 / Bohemians 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.206 / def 1.062 | Bohemians attack 1.354 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Bohemians xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Bohemians kick off?
Derry City vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 February 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Derry City 0 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Derry City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Bohemians part of?
Derry City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 28% chance of winning, Bohemians a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derry City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
Record (6 meetings): Derry City 3W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.35x) against Derry City's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
28%
3.59
28%
3.62
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.84
1.61
Bohemians xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Derry City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Derry City and 1.61 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 32W 22D 18L from 72 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 26W 18D 28L across 72 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Derry City against 1.33 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 18W 12D 6L from 36 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 12W 10D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Bohemians away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Derry City or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
3
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Bohemians have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Bohemians 5-3 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Bohemians?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 64%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Derry City's games and 47% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Bohemians tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Derry City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Derry City 0-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.23 xG and Bohemians 1.61 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derry City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Bohemians attack 1.35 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 28% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 45%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.64 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.