Cork City 2-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cork City at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cork City vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cork City and Waterford meet at Turners Cross in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Cork City (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cork City's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Turners Cross this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at Turners Cross than their overall form suggests.
Waterford have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Cork City against 0.80 for Waterford. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cork City, 2 for Waterford and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Waterford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cork City — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Waterford — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 46% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | Waterford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.21 xG and Waterford 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.852 / defence 1.097 | Waterford attack 0.815 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.256. Data: 10 Cork City games / 46 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 38% | Draw 28% | Waterford 34%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Waterford 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cork City at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cork City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cork City 40% | Waterford 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Turners Cross • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 38% | Draw 28% | Waterford 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Cork City 1.21 / Waterford 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.852 / def 1.097 | Waterford attack 0.815 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Cork City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Waterford xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Waterford kick off?
Cork City vs Waterford kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Turners Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Waterford?
Cork City 2 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Cork City vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Turners Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Waterford part of?
Cork City vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 38% chance of winning, Waterford a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cork City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cork City and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Waterford?
Record (2 meetings): Cork City 0W | Draws 0 | Waterford 2W.
What form are Cork City and Waterford in?
Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cork City's attack at 0.85x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.81x) against Cork City's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 10/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cork City Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.52
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Waterford xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cork City and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cork City and 1.12 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cork City come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 7D 22L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. Cork City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Waterford sit at 1.30 PPG from 37 outings (14W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Waterford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Cork City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cork City's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Waterford have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (6W 2D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cork City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and Waterford in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 games (0.84 PPG), while Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Waterford away?
Cork City's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.22 PPG; Waterford away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 29 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cork City have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Cork City
0
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Waterford?
From 5 meetings on record, Cork City have won 2, Waterford have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2025, when Cork City 2-0 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 44%, Waterford 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cork City) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cork City have failed to score in 28% of games; Waterford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cork City's recent matches and 39% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cork City vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cork City's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Waterford tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waterford in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cork City edge out Waterford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City beat Waterford 2-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.21 xG and Waterford 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Waterford attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 10/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 38% | Draw 28% | Waterford 34%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Cork City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.