Cork City 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cork City face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Turners Cross in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cork City's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cork City at Turners Cross this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at Turners Cross than their overall form suggests.
St Patrick's Athl. have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. St Patrick's Athl. are 2.10 PPG clear of Cork City in recent Premier Division fixtures (2.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Cork City's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Cork City half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 46% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | St Patrick's Athl. 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.21 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.966 / defence 1.139 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.077 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.041. Data: 7 Cork City games / 44 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 34% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Cork City 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Turners Cross • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 34% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Cork City 1.21 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.966 / def 1.139 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.077 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.28
St Patrick's Athl. xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Turners Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Cork City 0 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Turners Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 34% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (4 meetings): Cork City 0W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 3W.
What form are Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cork City's attack at 0.97x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.08x) against Cork City's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 7/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.40
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.28
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cork City and 1.28 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Cork City have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 8W 7D 22L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. Cork City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 17W 8D 12L from 37 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cork City.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cork City have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 6D 6L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cork City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 games (0.84 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 17W 8D 12L in their last 37 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.22 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cork City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cork City have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cork City
2
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cork City) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 33%; Cork City have failed to score in 28% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cork City's recent matches and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cork City's recent games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Cork City 0-2 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.21 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cork City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 34% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, St Patrick's Athl. 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.