Cork City 1-3 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cork City vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Derry City travel to Turner's Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Derry City — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cork City, 1 for Derry City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Derry City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 0.97 xG and Derry City 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.960 / defence 1.063 | Derry City attack 1.261 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.184. Derry City's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Cork City games / 46 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 23% | Draw 25% | Derry City 52%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Derry City 1.92. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 23% | Draw 25% | Derry City 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Cork City 0.97 / Derry City 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.960 / def 1.063 | Derry City attack 1.261 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Derry City (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Derry City xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Derry City kick off?
Cork City vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Derry City?
Cork City 1 - 3 Derry City.
Where is Cork City vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Derry City part of?
Cork City vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 23% chance of winning, Derry City a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cork City and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Derry City?
Record (1 meetings): Cork City 0W | Draws 0 | Derry City 1W.
What form are Cork City and Derry City in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Derry City away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cork City's attack at 0.96x the league average against Derry City's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
23%
4.31
25%
3.98
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.56
1.59
Derry City xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
5%
21.09
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cork City and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Cork City and 1.59 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cork City and Derry City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cork City's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cork City
1
Draws
7
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Derry City?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 0, Derry City have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Cork City 0-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Cork City 1-3 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 0.97 xG and Derry City 1.59 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Derry City attack 1.26 / defence 0.78, drawn from 10/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 23% | Draw 25% | Derry City 52%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.