Bohemians 2-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 34 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waterford's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bohemians register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Waterford in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 3, Waterford 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Waterford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Waterford 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 55% | Waterford 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.94 xG and Waterford 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.195 / defence 0.985 | Waterford attack 1.073 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.340. Data: 69 Bohemians games / 68 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 27% | Waterford 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Waterford 3.85. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Waterford 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 27% | Waterford 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Bohemians 1.94 / Waterford 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.195 / def 0.985 | Waterford attack 1.073 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Waterford xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 2 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 47% chance of winning, Waterford a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 3W | Draws 2 | Waterford 4W.
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
Bohemians (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Waterford (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.20x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.73
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.35
1.42
Waterford xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
4%
26.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.42 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians's recent record stands at 33W 14D 22L from 69 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 31L across 69 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bohemians by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waterford heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 17W 8D 9L from 34 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waterford's away record stands at 8W 7D 19L across 34 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.26 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 33W 14D 22L in their last 69 games (1.64 PPG), while Waterford have gone 19W 19D 31L in their last 69 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Waterford away?
Bohemians's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.74 PPG; Waterford away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Waterford in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Waterford have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Bohemians 2-1 Waterford.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 56%, Waterford 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians) and 53% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Waterford in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bohemians's games and 56% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians's recent games and 53% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Waterford tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Waterford in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Waterford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Waterford 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.94 xG and Waterford 1.42 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Waterford attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 47% | Draw 27% | Waterford 26%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 55%, Waterford 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.