Bohemians 1-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs UCD encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and UCD meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
UCD have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2022, ended 3–1 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
UCD — key trading statistics (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 61% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | UCD 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.69 xG and UCD 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.996 / defence 1.196 | UCD attack 0.750 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.981. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Bohemians games / 30 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 24% | UCD 19%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | UCD 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 60% | UCD 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 24% | UCD 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Bohemians 1.69 / UCD 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.996 / def 1.196 | UCD attack 0.750 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.88
UCD xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs UCD kick off?
Bohemians vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs UCD?
Bohemians 1 - 0 UCD.
Where is Bohemians vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs UCD part of?
Bohemians vs UCD is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 56% chance of winning, UCD a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bohemians and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and UCD?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 1 | UCD 0W.
What form are Bohemians and UCD in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. UCD (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against UCD's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.75x) against Bohemians's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 66/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.15
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.56
0.88
UCD xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
27.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.88 for UCD, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 10W 10D 11L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
UCD's form line: 5W 7D 19L from 31 games, 0.71 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against UCD.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 2D 10L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.77 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and UCD in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 10W 10D 11L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while UCD have gone 5W 7D 19L in their last 31 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or UCD away?
Bohemians's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.36 PPG; UCD away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, UCD have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2023, when UCD 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and UCD?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 64%, UCD 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bohemians) and 50% (UCD).
On the defensive side: UCD in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Bohemians's recent matches and 36% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Bohemians's recent games and 50% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and UCD tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, UCD in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out UCD 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat UCD 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.69 xG and UCD 0.88 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. UCD landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against UCD attack 0.75 / defence 1.31, drawn from 66/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 56% | Draw 24% | UCD 19%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, UCD 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
UCD's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. UCD (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.