Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Dalymount Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. 3, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.11 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.910 / defence 1.098 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.880 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.263. Data: 59 Bohemians games / 57 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1.11 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.910 / def 1.098 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.880 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.22
St Patrick's Athl. xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 June 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Bohemians 2 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 32% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 5 | St Patrick's Athl. 3W.
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.24
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.33
1.22
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.22 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 21L across 72 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.33 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 8D 14L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 11W 11D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.29 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Bohemians's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Bohemians or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
5
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 39%; St Patrick's Athl. in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 42% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.11 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.88 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 32% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.