Bohemians 4-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Finn Harps travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021, 18:00 UTC.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bohemians, 1 for Finn Harps and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2021, ended 0–1 with Finn Harps winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.85 xG and Finn Harps 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.984 / defence 1.506 | Finn Harps attack 0.787 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 0.758 / away 1.192. Data: 9 Bohemians games / 9 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 21% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 48%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Finn Harps 2.08. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 21% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 0.85 / Finn Harps 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.984 / def 1.506 | Finn Harps attack 0.787 / def 1.145 | league avg home 0.758 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Finn Harps xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Finn Harps kick off?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Bohemians 4 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Bohemians vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Finn Harps part of?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 21% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 48% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 0W | Draws 0 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Bohemians and Finn Harps in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.98) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
21%
4.78
31%
3.25
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.27
1.41
Finn Harps xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
5%
19.64
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.6 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.41 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bohemians
3
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Finn Harps have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2022, when Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Finn Harps 4-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.85 xG and Finn Harps 1.41 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Finn Harps landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 1.51 against Finn Harps attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 21% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 48%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.