Bohemians 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Derry City at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Thursday 13 June 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 6W 3D 1L at Dalymount Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

Derry City (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Derry City winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | Derry City 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.79 xG and Derry City 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.933 / defence 1.080 | Derry City attack 0.862 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 0.986. Derry City's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Bohemians games / 58 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 29% | Draw 34% | Derry City 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Derry City 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Bohemians's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 60% | Derry City 40%.

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