Bohemians 5-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Cork City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Cork City travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 May 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bohemians, 0 for Cork City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.27 xG and Cork City 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.113 / defence 1.186 | Cork City attack 0.893 / defence 1.557. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.231. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.557 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Bohemians games / 12 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 59% | Draw 20% | Cork City 21%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Cork City 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 59% | Draw 20% | Cork City 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Bohemians 2.27 / Cork City 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.113 / def 1.186 | Cork City attack 0.893 / def 1.557 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Cork City xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Cork City kick off?
Bohemians vs Cork City kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Bohemians 5 - 0 Cork City.
Where is Bohemians vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Cork City part of?
Bohemians vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 59% chance of winning, Cork City a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bohemians and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 0 | Cork City 0W.
What form are Bohemians and Cork City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Bohemians home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.11) and Cork City's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
59%
1.69
20%
5.09
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.58
1.30
Cork City xG
1.69
59%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
10%
9.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
2%
46.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.30 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Cork City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2023, when Bohemians won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
0
Draws
2
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Cork City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2025, when Bohemians 3-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Cork City?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Cork City 5-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.27 xG and Cork City 1.30 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cork City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.11 / defence 1.19 against Cork City attack 0.89 / defence 1.56, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 59% | Draw 20% | Cork City 21%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.