Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panetolikos at Panthessaliko Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC at Panthessaliko Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Volos NFC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Volos NFC have won 4, Panetolikos 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus Panetolikos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Volos NFC 48% | Panetolikos 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.15 xG and Panetolikos 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.873 / defence 0.999 | Panetolikos attack 0.783 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.181. Data: 40 Volos NFC games / 40 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 29%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Panetolikos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Panetolikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Volos NFC 1.15 / Panetolikos 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.873 / def 0.999 | Panetolikos attack 0.783 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Panetolikos xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panetolikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Volos NFC 1 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 41% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Volos NFC and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
Record (9 meetings): Volos NFC 4W | Draws 2 | Panetolikos 3W.
What form are Volos NFC and Panetolikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.87) and Panetolikos's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.34
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.07
0.92
Panetolikos xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.92 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 18W 7D 25L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos's form line: 17W 12D 21L from 50 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.22 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 8W 10D 6L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.86 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Panetolikos in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 18W 7D 25L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.08 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 5, Panetolikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 46%, Panetolikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Volos NFC and 21% for Panetolikos.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 42%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 38% of games; Panetolikos in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 38% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Volos NFC's recent games and 21% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Panetolikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panetolikos 1-0 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.15 xG and Panetolikos 0.92 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 29%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Panetolikos 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Panetolikos's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.22 PPG, Panetolikos 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.