Volos NFC 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Panathinaikos travel to Panthessaliko Stadio to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos NFC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Volos NFC at 1.10 PPG versus Panathinaikos's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Panathinaikos have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Volos NFC's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Panathinaikos winning.
It is worth noting that Panathinaikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 55% versus Panathinaikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 55% | Panathinaikos 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.81 xG and Panathinaikos 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.792 / defence 1.330 | Panathinaikos attack 0.865 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.205. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Volos NFC games / 35 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 20% | Draw 31% | Panathinaikos 49%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Panathinaikos 2.04. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 70% | Panathinaikos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 20% | Draw 31% | Panathinaikos 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Volos NFC 0.81 / Panathinaikos 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.792 / def 1.330 | Panathinaikos attack 0.865 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Panathinaikos xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Volos NFC 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 20% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Volos NFC and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panathinaikos?
Record (6 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 5W.
What form are Volos NFC and Panathinaikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.79) and Panathinaikos's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
20%
4.97
31%
3.19
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.20
1.39
Panathinaikos xG
4.97
20%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
19.86
22%
4.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.4 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.39 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 10D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.76 PPG from 42 outings (21W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Volos NFC's home form reads 5W 4D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.88 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 11W 10D 21L in their last 42 games (1.02 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 21W 11D 10L in their last 42 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.95 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Panathinaikos won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
1
Draws
8
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Panathinaikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 70%, Panathinaikos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Volos NFC and 65% for Panathinaikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panathinaikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Volos NFC's games and 50% of Panathinaikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Volos NFC's matches and 65% of Panathinaikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Volos NFC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Volos NFC 0-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.81 xG and Panathinaikos 1.39 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Panathinaikos attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 20% | Draw 31% | Panathinaikos 49%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 55%, Panathinaikos 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.