Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Volos NFC (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadium plays host to Volos NFC versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Monday 19 January 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC at Panthessaliko Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Volos NFC's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Volos NFC 4W, Atromitos 2W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 46% versus Atromitos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 50% | Atromitos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.29 xG and Atromitos 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.862 / defence 0.952 | Atromitos attack 0.883 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.090. Data: 42 Volos NFC games / 42 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 45% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 26%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Atromitos 3.85. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Atromitos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 45% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Volos NFC 1.29 / Atromitos 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.862 / def 0.952 | Atromitos attack 0.883 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Atromitos xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Atromitos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Volos NFC 0 - 3 Atromitos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Atromitos part of?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 45% chance of winning, Atromitos a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Volos NFC and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
Record (9 meetings): Volos NFC 4W | Draws 3 | Atromitos 2W.
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.88x) against Volos NFC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.44
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.92
Atromitos xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.92 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 7D 23L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos's form line: 15W 11D 22L from 48 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Volos NFC against 1.17 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 11W 3D 9L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.17 PPG overall record — Atromitos travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.10 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 18W 7D 23L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.26 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
3
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Atromitos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 44%, Atromitos 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Volos NFC) and 56% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Volos NFC have failed to score in 35% of games; Atromitos in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 48% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Volos NFC's recent games and 56% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Atromitos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Volos NFC 0-3 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.29 xG and Atromitos 0.92 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Atromitos attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 45% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 26%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Atromitos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 50%, Atromitos 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.27 PPG, Atromitos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.