Volos NFC 0-3 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 5 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Panthessaliko Stadio to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 2W 1D 7L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.10 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 49% versus Aris Thessalonikis 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.15 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.938 / defence 1.383 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.945 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 29% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 29% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Volos NFC 1.15 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.938 / def 1.383 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.945 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Aris Thessalonikis xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Volos NFC 0 - 3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 29% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
29%
3.47
35%
2.86
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.31
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.31 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 17D 25L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 29W 12D 22L from 63 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.27 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (12W 5D 15L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 12W 5D 15L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.27 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 29W 12D 22L in their last 63 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.28 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
2
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 47%, Aris Thessalonikis 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Volos NFC) and 41% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 34%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 34% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 34% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Volos NFC's recent games and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 0-3 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.15 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.31 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 29% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.27 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.