PAS Giannina 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atromitos make the trip to Stadio Zosimades to face PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
PAS Giannina (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina at Stadio Zosimades this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atromitos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Atromitos and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 46% versus Atromitos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 44% | Atromitos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.45 xG and Atromitos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.086 / defence 1.299 | Atromitos attack 0.839 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.026. Data: 45 PAS Giannina games / 45 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 41% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 26%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Atromitos 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 70% | Atromitos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 41% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG PAS Giannina 1.45 / Atromitos 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.086 / def 1.299 | Atromitos attack 0.839 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Atromitos xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Atromitos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
PAS Giannina 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Atromitos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 41% chance of winning, Atromitos a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PAS Giannina and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Atromitos?
Record (3 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Atromitos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 1.09x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.84x) against PAS Giannina's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
41%
2.42
33%
3.03
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.57
1.12
Atromitos xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.12 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 14W 15D 23L from 52 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 23L across 52 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for PAS Giannina against 1.10 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 10W 8D 8L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 4W 7D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.02 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Atromitos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 14W 15D 23L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 14W 15D 23L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Atromitos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.46 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
6
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Atromitos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, Atromitos have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Atromitos 3-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 58%, Atromitos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (PAS Giannina) and 42% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 42% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 42% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Atromitos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 20, as PAS Giannina and Atromitos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.45 xG and Atromitos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.09 / defence 1.30 against Atromitos attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 41% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 26%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 44%, Atromitos 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.10 PPG, Atromitos 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.