PAS Giannina 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atromitos make the trip to Stadio Zosimades to face PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
PAS Giannina (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina at Stadio Zosimades this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 home games — 1.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atromitos have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. PAS Giannina's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PAS Giannina, 0 for Atromitos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 47% versus Atromitos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 40% | Atromitos 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.79 xG and Atromitos 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.974 / defence 1.256 | Atromitos attack 0.700 / defence 1.752. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.148. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.752 — this is suppressing PAS Giannina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 PAS Giannina games / 15 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 56% | Draw 23% | Atromitos 21%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Atromitos 4.76. The model has a clear lean to PAS Giannina (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 56% | Atromitos 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 56% | Draw 23% | Atromitos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG PAS Giannina 1.79 / Atromitos 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.974 / def 1.256 | Atromitos attack 0.700 / def 1.752 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Atromitos xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Atromitos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
PAS Giannina 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Atromitos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 56% chance of winning, Atromitos a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAS Giannina and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Atromitos?
Record (1 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 1 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Atromitos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 0.97x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 1.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.70x) against PAS Giannina's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 17/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.32
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.80
1.01
Atromitos xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
4%
28.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.01 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Atromitos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 5W 5D 5L from 15 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 10L across 15 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAS Giannina by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.93 scored and 2.13 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Atromitos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 10L in their last 15 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Atromitos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.38 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.25 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Atromitos in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
6
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Atromitos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, Atromitos have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Atromitos 3-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 62%, Atromitos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for PAS Giannina and 62% for Atromitos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 38% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of PAS Giannina's matches and 62% of Atromitos's.
Do PAS Giannina and Atromitos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 18, as PAS Giannina and Atromitos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.79 xG and Atromitos 1.01 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Atromitos attack 0.70 / defence 1.75, drawn from 17/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 56% | Draw 23% | Atromitos 21%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 40%, Atromitos 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAS Giannina arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.