PAS Giannina 1-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Asteras Tripolis at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Zosimades this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 45% versus Asteras Tripolis 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 39% | Asteras Tripolis 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.19 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.820 / defence 1.030 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.699 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Data: 52 PAS Giannina games / 52 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 43% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 19%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.33 | Draw 2.63 | Asteras Tripolis 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | Asteras Tripolis 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 43% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG PAS Giannina 1.19 / Asteras Tripolis 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.820 / def 1.030 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.699 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Asteras Tripolis xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina 1 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 43% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 19% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (4 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 2 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.82) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
43%
2.31
38%
2.63
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
1.91
0.72
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
6%
17.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.72 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 16W 21D 27L from 64 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 16W 23D 25L across 64 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.08 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 11W 10D 10L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 4W 11D 16L across 31 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.86 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 16W 21D 27L in their last 64 games (1.08 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 16W 23D 25L in their last 64 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.39 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.74 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
3
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 52%, Asteras Tripolis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAS Giannina) and 29% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 29% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 36% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 29% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAS Giannina edge out Asteras Tripolis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Asteras Tripolis 1-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.19 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.72 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 43% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 19%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 39%, Asteras Tripolis 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.08 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.