PAOK 3-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 September 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
PAOK hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Volos NFC, with 0 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 42% versus Volos NFC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 49% | Volos NFC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.59 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 0.970 / defence 0.762 | Volos NFC attack 0.869 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.137. PAOK's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 PAOK games / 31 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 54% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 14%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.85 | Draw 3.12 | Volos NFC 7.14. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | Volos NFC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Sep 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 54% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG PAOK 1.59 / Volos NFC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 0.970 / def 0.762 | Volos NFC attack 0.869 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: PAOK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Volos NFC xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Volos NFC kick off?
PAOK vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
PAOK 3 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is PAOK vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Volos NFC part of?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 54% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 14% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAOK and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
Record (4 meetings): PAOK 4W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (0.97) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
54%
1.86
32%
3.13
14%
7.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.34
0.75
Volos NFC xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
7.06
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
34.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are PAOK and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for PAOK and 0.75 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 22W 11D 8L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC's form line: 11W 9D 21L from 41 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 6D 8L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 22W 11D 8L in their last 41 games (1.88 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 11W 9D 21L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Volos NFC away?
PAOK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.00 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have PAOK or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
PAOK
0
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 8, Volos NFC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Volos NFC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAOK 40% BTTS, Volos NFC 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (PAOK) and 50% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Volos NFC in 40%; Volos NFC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAOK's recent matches and 30% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of PAOK's recent games and 50% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Volos NFC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Volos NFC 3-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.59 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 0.97 / defence 0.76 against Volos NFC attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 54% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 14%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 49%, Volos NFC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.