PAOK 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs PAS Giannina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Toumbas — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAOK, 2 for PAS Giannina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 0–1 with PAS Giannina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
PAS Giannina trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 50% versus PAS Giannina 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 41% | PAS Giannina 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.77 xG and PAS Giannina 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.125 / defence 0.984 | PAS Giannina attack 0.886 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.138. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 PAOK games / 36 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 52% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 18%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | PAS Giannina 5.56. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 50% | PAS Giannina 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 52% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG PAOK 1.77 / PAS Giannina 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.125 / def 0.984 | PAS Giannina attack 0.886 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: PAOK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.99
PAS Giannina xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs PAS Giannina kick off?
PAOK vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
PAOK 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is PAOK vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs PAS Giannina part of?
PAOK vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 52% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAOK and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
Record (4 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 2W.
What form are PAOK and PAS Giannina in?
PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.12) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.33
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.76
0.99
PAS Giannina xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
3%
33.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for PAOK and 0.99 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 23W 11D 12L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina's form line: 14W 13D 19L from 46 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAS Giannina.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (13W 5D 5L).
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 4W 6D 13L from 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAS Giannina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.98 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 games (1.74 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or PAS Giannina away?
PAOK's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.91 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.78 PPG.
Have PAOK or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
PAOK
1
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, PAOK have won 5, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 52%, PAS Giannina 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAOK) and 30% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 30%; PAS Giannina in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of PAOK's recent matches and 22% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAOK's recent games and 30% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.77 xG and PAS Giannina 0.99 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAS Giannina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against PAS Giannina attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 52% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 18%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 41%, PAS Giannina 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.