PAOK 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: PAOK 1W, Olympiakos Piraeus 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 57% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 68% | Olympiakos Piraeus 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.399 / defence 0.948 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.293 / defence 0.640. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.093. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 1.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.640 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 32% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 32% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG PAOK 1.14 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.399 / def 0.948 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.293 / def 0.640 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 2 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 32% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (4 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.29x) against PAOK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.71
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.48
1.34
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for PAOK and 1.34 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 40W 9D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 42W 12D 9L from 63 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for PAOK against 2.19 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.06 PPG from 31 outings (20W 4D 7L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 18W 7D 6L from 31 away games — 1.97 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.03 scored and 0.83 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 40W 9D 14L in their last 63 games (2.05 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 42W 12D 9L in their last 63 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.06 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.97 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 45%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (PAOK) and 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of PAOK's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of PAOK's recent games and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.29 / defence 0.64, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 32% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 68%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.05 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.