PAOK 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for PAOK, 1.70 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 45% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 45% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.24 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.319 / defence 0.779 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.358 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.001. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — the away xG of 1.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 36% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 36% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG PAOK 1.24 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.319 / def 0.779 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.358 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 36% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.36x) against PAOK's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
36%
2.74
36%
2.79
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.30
1.06
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for PAOK and 1.06 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 38W 17D 16L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 45W 18D 8L from 71 games, 2.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for PAOK against 2.15 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.00 PPG from 35 outings (21W 7D 7L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 20W 10D 5L from 35 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.85 scored and 0.70 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into PAOK's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 38W 17D 16L in their last 71 games (1.85 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 45W 18D 8L in their last 71 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.00 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.00 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 46%, Olympiakos Piraeus 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PAOK) and 51% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PAOK's recent matches and 49% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PAOK's recent games and 51% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat PAOK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 0-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.24 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.06 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAOK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.32 / defence 0.78 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.36 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 36% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 45%, Olympiakos Piraeus 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.85 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.