PAOK vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for PAOK against 1.30 for Levadiakos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, PAOK are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with PAOK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 56% | Levadiakos 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.65 xG and Levadiakos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.120 / defence 0.879 | Levadiakos attack 1.020 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAOK 52% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 20%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Levadiakos 5.00. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 40% | Levadiakos 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 52% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG PAOK 1.65 / Levadiakos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.120 / def 0.879 | Levadiakos attack 1.020 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: PAOK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Levadiakos xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Levadiakos kick off?
PAOK vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Levadiakos part of?
PAOK vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 52% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PAOK and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Levadiakos?
Record (6 meetings): PAOK 5W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Levadiakos in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PAOK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.12x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.02x) against PAOK's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.56
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Levadiakos xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
4%
26.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are PAOK and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for PAOK and 0.96 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK come into this having played 32 games, going 18W 10D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. PAOK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.62 PPG from 32 outings (15W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. Levadiakos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for PAOK against 1.62 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAOK's home form reads 12W 4D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.97 scored and 1.47 conceded. Levadiakos's attacking output running into PAOK's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Pre-Season
Levadiakos
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 18W 10D 4L in their last 32 games (2.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 10L in their last 32 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Levadiakos away?
PAOK's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.50 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.19 PPG.
Have PAOK or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, PAOK have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when PAOK 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Levadiakos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 31%, Levadiakos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAOK) and 62% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Levadiakos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of PAOK's recent matches and 50% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PAOK's matches and 62% of Levadiakos's.
Do PAOK and Levadiakos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.