PAOK 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (74%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PAOK face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lamia travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Monday 4 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
PAOK — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, PAOK have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Lamia have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lamia's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of PAOK: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2023, ended PAOK 3–0 Lamia — a PAOK win.
The head-to-head data gives PAOK an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 42% versus Lamia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 53% | Lamia 44%). Note also that Lamia surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while PAOK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.24 xG and Lamia 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.271 / defence 0.687 | Lamia attack 0.771 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.093. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.271 — their 2.24 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lamia's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.687), which is pulling Lamia's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 38 games and Lamia's last 38.
Result probabilities: PAOK 74% | Draw 20% | Lamia 6%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.36 | Draw 4.96 | Lamia 15.97. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (74%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PAOK's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 40% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Monday 4 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 74% | Draw 20% | Lamia 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG PAOK 2.24 / Lamia 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.271 / def 0.687 | Lamia attack 0.771 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: PAOK (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Lamia xG
41%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Lamia FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Lamia kick off?
PAOK vs Lamia kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 4 December 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Lamia?
PAOK 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is PAOK vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Lamia part of?
PAOK vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 74% chance of winning, Lamia a 6% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PAOK and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will PAOK vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.27) and Lamia's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 38 games and Lamia's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 3-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
74%
1.36
20%
4.96
6%
15.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
3 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.82
0.58
Lamia xG
1.36
74%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
15.97
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
11%
9.38
Win to Nil
41%
2.42
1%
149.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are PAOK and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for PAOK and 0.58 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 25W 11D 9L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 9W 18D 18L from 45 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 23 home games (15W 4D 4L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 11D 10L from their last 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.82 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Lamia
Blended
PAOK (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ PAOK vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Lamia in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 25W 11D 9L in their last 45 games (1.91 PPG), while Lamia have gone 9W 18D 18L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Lamia away?
PAOK's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.13 PPG; Lamia away: 0.74 PPG.
Have PAOK or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lamia in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
PAOK's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAOK and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2025: PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Lamia?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 35%, Lamia 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (PAOK) and 39% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Lamia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of PAOK's recent matches and 39% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of PAOK's recent games and 39% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of PAOK's recent matches and 52% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 3-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.24 xG and Lamia 0.58 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.27 / defence 0.69 against Lamia attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 74% | Draw 20% | Lamia 6%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 53%, Lamia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.