Panserraikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panserraikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos at Dimotiko Stadio Serron this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Olympiakos Piraeus, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–5 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 50% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 61% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.56 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.749 / defence 1.457 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.146 / defence 0.544. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.092. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.544 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Panserraikos games / 48 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 10% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 68%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 10.00 | Draw 4.55 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 10% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 36% | xG Panserraikos 0.56 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.749 / def 1.457 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.146 / def 0.544 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
36%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panserraikos 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 10% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 68% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (5 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 5W.
What form are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.75x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.54x — combine the two and it projects 0.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.15x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (15.3%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
10%
9.58
22%
4.56
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.3%
Away win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.38
1.82
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
9.58
10%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
16%
6.19
57%
1.75
Win to Nil
2%
59.30
39%
2.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 16.8 | 15.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.82 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panserraikos's recent record stands at 13W 9D 32L from 54 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 38W 11D 5L across 54 games — 2.31 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panserraikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panserraikos have managed 9W 6D 12L from 27 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 17W 6D 4L across 27 trips, a 2.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.81 scored and 0.59 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 13W 9D 32L in their last 54 games (0.89 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 38W 11D 5L in their last 54 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.22 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 13 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
0
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panserraikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 52%, Olympiakos Piraeus 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Panserraikos) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 63%; Panserraikos have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Panserraikos's recent games and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panserraikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panserraikos 1-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.56 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.75 / defence 1.46 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.54, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 10% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 68%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 61%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.