Panserraikos 2-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panserraikos at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Panserraikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panserraikos's home record at Dimotiko Stadio Serron: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Levadiakos (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.33 points per game. Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Panserraikos's 1.10 PPG return is 0.77 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Panserraikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Panserraikos 33% | Levadiakos 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 67% | Levadiakos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.12 xG and Levadiakos 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.874 / defence 0.980 | Levadiakos attack 0.725 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.282. Data: 29 Panserraikos games / 3 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 39% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 28%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Levadiakos 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panserraikos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panserraikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 40% | Levadiakos 0% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 39% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Panserraikos 1.12 / Levadiakos 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.874 / def 0.980 | Levadiakos attack 0.725 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Levadiakos xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panserraikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Panserraikos 2 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panserraikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 39% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panserraikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panserraikos and Levadiakos in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panserraikos's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.72x) against Panserraikos's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (29/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
39%
2.58
34%
2.98
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.03
0.91
Levadiakos xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Panserraikos and 0.91 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panserraikos come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Panserraikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Panserraikos against 0.33 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Panserraikos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Levadiakos go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 3-0 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
1
Draws
5
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Levadiakos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Panserraikos 0-2 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Panserraikos) and 0% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Panserraikos) and 33% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 33%; Panserraikos have failed to score in 67% of games; Levadiakos in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Panserraikos's recent games and 33% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panserraikos and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 4, as Panserraikos and Levadiakos drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.12 xG and Levadiakos 0.91 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Levadiakos attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 29/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 39% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 28%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 67%, Levadiakos 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.00 PPG, Levadiakos 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.