Panetolikos 0-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 2W 2D 5L at Stadio Panetolikou — 0.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 1.30 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Panetolikos, 1 for PAS Giannina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with PAS Giannina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 65% versus PAS Giannina 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 70% | PAS Giannina 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.98 xG and PAS Giannina 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.871 / defence 1.390 | PAS Giannina attack 0.730 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.160. Data: 20 Panetolikos games / 21 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 30% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 40%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | PAS Giannina 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 67% | PAS Giannina 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 30% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Panetolikos 0.98 / PAS Giannina 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.871 / def 1.390 | PAS Giannina attack 0.730 / def 1.151 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.18
PAS Giannina xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 30% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Panetolikos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAS Giannina?
Record (1 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 1W.
What form are Panetolikos and PAS Giannina in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.87x the league average against PAS Giannina's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
30%
3.28
29%
3.42
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.16
1.18
PAS Giannina xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.18 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 3D 11L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.05 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panetolikos's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.15 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAS Giannina in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or PAS Giannina away?
PAS Giannina's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.89 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and PAS Giannina runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Panetolikos
4
Draws
3
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 1, PAS Giannina have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and PAS Giannina?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 67%, PAS Giannina 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Panetolikos) and 11% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina in 33%; PAS Giannina in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 22% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Panetolikos's recent games and 11% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAS Giannina edge out Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.98 xG and PAS Giannina 1.18 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.39 against PAS Giannina attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 30% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 40%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 70%, PAS Giannina 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.05 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.