Panetolikos 1-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Panetolikos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Stadio Panetolikou to face Panetolikos in Super League 1 (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panetolikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
PAOK have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PAOK are 1.20 PPG clear of Panetolikos over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to PAOK, who have 4 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Panetolikos 1–2 PAOK — a PAOK win.
PAOK have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 48% versus PAOK 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | PAOK 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Panetolikos surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.10 xG and PAOK 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.861 / defence 1.145 | PAOK attack 1.614 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.334. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.614, which lifts their away xG to 2.47. Data: built from Panetolikos's last 49 games and PAOK's last 49.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 14% | Draw 20% | PAOK 66%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 7.15 | Draw 5.02 | PAOK 1.51. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.10 / 2.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Panetolikos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Panetolikos 40% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 14% | Draw 20% | PAOK 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Panetolikos 1.10 / PAOK 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.861 / def 1.145 | PAOK attack 1.614 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: PAOK (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
2.47
PAOK xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Panetolikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panetolikos vs PAOK kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Panetolikos 1 - 3 PAOK.
Where is Panetolikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs PAOK part of?
Panetolikos vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 14% chance of winning, PAOK a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Panetolikos and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panetolikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.86) and PAOK's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.61x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.47.
These ratings are built from Panetolikos's last 49 games and PAOK's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
14%
7.15
20%
5.02
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
3.57
2.47
PAOK xG
7.15
14%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
8%
11.79
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
1%
84.31
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Panetolikos and 2.47 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Panetolikos have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 11W 16D 29L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 33W 12D 11L from 56 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panetolikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panetolikos have posted 0.96 PPG from their last 27 home games (6W 8D 13L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 14W 7D 6L from their last 27 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.02 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Panetolikos (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panetolikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 11W 16D 29L in their last 56 games (0.88 PPG), while PAOK have gone 33W 12D 11L in their last 56 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.96 PPG; PAOK away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, PAOK in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Panetolikos and PAOK, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: PAOK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panetolikos have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Panetolikos 1-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 33%, PAOK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Panetolikos) and 56% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 33%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panetolikos and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 52% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panetolikos and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Panetolikos's recent games and 56% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 82% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 1-3 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.10 xG and PAOK 2.47 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against PAOK attack 1.61 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 14% | Draw 20% | PAOK 66%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 46%, PAOK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.