Panetolikos 3-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Panserraikos meet at Stadio Panetolikou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Panserraikos have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 40% versus Panserraikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 53% | Panserraikos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.88 xG and Panserraikos 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.918 / defence 1.036 | Panserraikos attack 0.624 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.156. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Panetolikos games / 15 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 63% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 13%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Panserraikos 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Panetolikos (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | Panserraikos 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 63% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Panetolikos 1.88 / Panserraikos 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.918 / def 1.036 | Panserraikos attack 0.624 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Panserraikos xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 4 January 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Panetolikos 3 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos part of?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 63% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Panetolikos and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Panserraikos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.92x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.62x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 41/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
63%
1.58
23%
4.26
13%
7.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.63
0.75
Panserraikos xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
7.56
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
2%
49.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.75 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 2W 5D 8L from 15 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 7L across 15 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Panetolikos against 0.93 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Panetolikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 0W 2D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.07 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Panserraikos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.29 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
4
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Panserraikos see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Panetolikos) and 29% (Panserraikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Panetolikos) and 43% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 43% of games; Panserraikos in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 29% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Panetolikos's recent games and 43% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Panserraikos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Panserraikos 3-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.88 xG and Panserraikos 0.75 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Panserraikos attack 0.62 / defence 1.28, drawn from 41/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 63% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 13%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 53%, Panserraikos 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.73 PPG, Panserraikos 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.