Panetolikos 0-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 7 as Panetolikos welcome OFI to Stadio Panetolikou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Panetolikou, Panetolikos have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
OFI — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Panetolikos, 1 for OFI and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2023, ended 0–4 with OFI winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 51% versus OFI 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 48% | OFI 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.95 xG and OFI 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.795 / defence 1.069 | OFI attack 1.182 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.001. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 24% | Draw 36% | OFI 40%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | OFI 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 24% | Draw 36% | OFI 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Panetolikos 0.95 / OFI 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.795 / def 1.069 | OFI attack 1.182 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: OFI (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.26
OFI xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs OFI kick off?
Panetolikos vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Panetolikos 0 - 2 OFI.
Where is Panetolikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs OFI part of?
Panetolikos vs OFI is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 24% chance of winning, OFI a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Panetolikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
Record (2 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 0 | OFI 1W.
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.80x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
24%
4.16
36%
2.76
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.21
1.26
OFI xG
4.16
24%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.8 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.26 for OFI, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 65 games, going 17W 16D 32L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.26 PPG from 65 outings (20W 22D 23L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.03 PPG, OFI on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 7W 9D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.39 points per game from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.15 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 17W 16D 32L in their last 65 games (1.03 PPG), while OFI have gone 20W 22D 23L in their last 65 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.97 PPG; OFI away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
1
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 5, OFI have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and OFI?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 42%, OFI 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Panetolikos) and 48% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; OFI in 32%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 42% of games; OFI in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 45% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Panetolikos's recent games and 48% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, OFI in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Panetolikos 0-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.95 xG and OFI 1.26 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against OFI attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 24% | Draw 36% | OFI 40%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 48%, OFI 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.03 PPG, OFI 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.