Panetolikos 0-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Panetolikou plays host to Panetolikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Levadiakos (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Panetolikos's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 60% versus Levadiakos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 40% | Levadiakos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.42 xG and Levadiakos 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 1.004 / defence 1.240 | Levadiakos attack 0.598 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.122. Data: 36 Panetolikos games / 10 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 47% | Draw 35% | Levadiakos 18%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.13 | Draw 2.86 | Levadiakos 5.56. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | Levadiakos 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 47% | Draw 35% | Levadiakos 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Panetolikos 1.42 / Levadiakos 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 1.004 / def 1.240 | Levadiakos attack 0.598 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Levadiakos xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Panetolikos 0 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 47% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Panetolikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panetolikos's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.60x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 36/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
47%
2.12
35%
2.89
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.25
0.83
Levadiakos xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
4%
22.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.83 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 6L across 10 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panetolikos by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.75 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Levadiakos go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Panetolikos
5
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 1, Levadiakos have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Panetolikos 1-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 50%, Levadiakos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panetolikos) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 50% of games; Levadiakos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 50% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panetolikos's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Panetolikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 11, as Panetolikos and Levadiakos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.42 xG and Levadiakos 0.83 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Levadiakos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Levadiakos attack 0.60 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 47% | Draw 35% | Levadiakos 18%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 40%, Levadiakos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Panetolikos arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.