Panetolikos 1-3 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Panetolikos take on Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 2 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 1.00 (Lamia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Panetolikos's 20% rate and Lamia's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Panetolikos, 1 for Lamia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 50% versus Lamia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | Lamia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.05 xG and Lamia 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.743 / defence 1.098 | Lamia attack 0.700 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.998. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 40% | Lamia 22%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.63 | Draw 2.50 | Lamia 4.55. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 20% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 40% | Lamia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Panetolikos 1.05 / Lamia 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.743 / def 1.098 | Lamia attack 0.700 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Lamia xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Panetolikos 1 - 3 Lamia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Lamia part of?
Panetolikos vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 38% chance of winning, Lamia a 22% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Panetolikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 1 | Lamia 1W.
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Lamia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.74x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.65
40%
2.50
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.82
0.77
Lamia xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.50
40%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.77 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 15D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.83 PPG from 60 outings (10W 20D 30L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.10 PPG, Lamia on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 7W 9D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (5W 11D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.67 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 17W 15D 28L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 20D 30L in their last 60 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Lamia away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Lamia have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Panetolikos 40% BTTS, Lamia 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Panetolikos and 30% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 43% of games; Lamia in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 30% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Panetolikos's recent games and 30% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Lamia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panetolikos 1-3 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.05 xG and Lamia 0.77 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lamia outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Lamia attack 0.70 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 38% | Draw 40% | Lamia 22%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 47%, Lamia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.10 PPG, Lamia 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.