Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Kifisia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Kifisia travel to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kifisia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kifisia have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Kifisia have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 36% versus Kifisia 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Kifisia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.40 xG and Kifisia 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.436 / defence 0.681 | Kifisia attack 1.034 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.168. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 14 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 17% | Kifisia 11%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Kifisia 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Kifisia 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 17% | Kifisia 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 51% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.40 / Kifisia 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.436 / def 0.681 | Kifisia attack 1.034 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Kifisia xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 72% chance of winning, Kifisia a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
Record (3 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 0 | Kifisia 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Kifisia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.44x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.98
11%
9.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.22
0.82
Kifisia xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.98
17%
Draw
9.08
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
9%
11.00
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
99.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.82 for Kifisia, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 14 games, going 11W 2D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kifisia sit at 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Kifisia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 7W 0D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.50 PPG overall — Olympiakos Piraeus are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kifisia have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.50 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 71%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 2D 1L in their last 14 games (2.50 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Kifisia away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 3.00 PPG; Kifisia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Kifisia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Kifisia in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
From 4 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, Kifisia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 29%, Kifisia 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 71% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 86% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 71% of Kifisia's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.40 xG and Kifisia 0.82 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.44 / defence 0.68 against Kifisia attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 17% | Kifisia 11%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Kifisia 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Kifisia's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.