Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 August 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kallithea have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Kallithea have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Kallithea's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36 xG and Kallithea 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.165 / defence 0.975 | Kallithea attack 0.706 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.097. Data: 27 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 1 Kallithea games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 28% | Kallithea 21%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Kallithea 4.76. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 28% | Kallithea 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36 / Kallithea 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.165 / def 0.975 | Kallithea attack 0.706 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Kallithea xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 Kallithea.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 51% chance of winning, Kallithea a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Kallithea (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Kallithea's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Kallithea's attack (0.71x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
The sample (27/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.58
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.12
0.76
Kallithea xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.76 for Kallithea, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kallithea, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kallithea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kallithea heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against Kallithea's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Kallithea in 0%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Kallithea in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Kallithea
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Kallithea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Kallithea in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 1, Kallithea have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea last play each other?
They last met on 16 December 2024, when Kallithea 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Kallithea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 0% of Kallithea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kallithea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 0% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Kallithea tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kallithea in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Kallithea 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Kallithea 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36 xG and Kallithea 0.76 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Kallithea attack 0.71 / defence 1.00, drawn from 27/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 28% | Kallithea 21%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 0%, Kallithea 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kallithea scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.