Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Iraklis 1908 make the trip to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Iraklis 1908's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (1.80 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.80 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.945 / defence 0.804 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.771 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Iraklis 1908 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 2 Iraklis 1908 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 25% | Iraklis 1908 11%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Iraklis 1908 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 25% | Iraklis 1908 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 40% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.80 / Iraklis 1908 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.945 / def 0.804 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.771 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Iraklis 1908 xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 64% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (0.94) and Iraklis 1908's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Iraklis 1908's attack (0.77x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
64%
1.56
25%
3.98
11%
9.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.42
0.62
Iraklis 1908 xG
1.56
64%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
9.44
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
2%
57.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.62 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Iraklis 1908's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 2.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Iraklis 1908.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Iraklis 1908 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Iraklis 1908 in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Iraklis 1908?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 50% of Iraklis 1908's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 50% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.