OFI 3-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
OFI host Panserraikos at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
OFI — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
OFI at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Panserraikos stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Panserraikos have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (OFI) versus 1.10 (Panserraikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, OFI have won 2, Panserraikos 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended OFI 3–2 Panserraikos — a OFI win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 52% versus Panserraikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 52% | Panserraikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.38 xG and Panserraikos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.028 / defence 1.021 | Panserraikos attack 0.858 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.108. Data: built from OFI's last 45 games and Panserraikos's last 45.
Result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 27%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.17 | Draw 3.66 | Panserraikos 3.77. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OFI 60% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG OFI 1.38 / Panserraikos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.028 / def 1.021 | Panserraikos attack 0.858 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: OFI (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Panserraikos xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Panserraikos kick off?
OFI vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panserraikos?
OFI 3 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is OFI vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panserraikos part of?
OFI vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 46% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both OFI and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will OFI vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.03) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 45 games and Panserraikos's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.66
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
OFI xG
Total xG
2.35
0.97
Panserraikos xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
7%
14.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OFI and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for OFI and 0.97 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, OFI have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 13W 20D 19L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Panserraikos's form line: 15W 14D 23L from 52 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.13 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 25 home games (8W 9D 8L).
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 5W 4D 16L from their last 25 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.15 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ OFI vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 20D 19L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 15W 14D 23L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panserraikos away?
OFI's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.32 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 13 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
OFI have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Feb 2024, when OFI won OFI 4-0 Panserraikos.
OFI's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panserraikos?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 5, Panserraikos have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did OFI and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 December 2025: OFI 3-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panserraikos?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 52%, Panserraikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (OFI) and 48% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Panserraikos in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Panserraikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of OFI's recent matches and 40% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of OFI's recent games and 48% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of OFI's recent matches and 68% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Panserraikos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Panserraikos 3-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.38 xG and Panserraikos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Panserraikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 46% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 27%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 52%, Panserraikos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.13 PPG, Panserraikos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.