OFI 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Panetolikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.00 PPG versus Panetolikos's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. OFI register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Panetolikos in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 53% versus Panetolikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 50% | Panetolikos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.02 xG and Panetolikos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.915 / defence 1.185 | Panetolikos attack 0.953 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 0.854. Data: 29 OFI games / 29 Panetolikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 35% | Draw 33% | Panetolikos 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Panetolikos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: OFI 60% | Panetolikos 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 35% | Draw 33% | Panetolikos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG OFI 1.02 / Panetolikos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.915 / def 1.185 | Panetolikos attack 0.953 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.172 / away 0.854 • Poisson stance: OFI (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Panetolikos xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panetolikos kick off?
OFI vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
OFI 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is OFI vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panetolikos part of?
OFI vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 35% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both OFI and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.01
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
OFI xG
Total xG
1.99
0.96
Panetolikos xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are OFI and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for OFI and 0.96 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 12W 11D 13L from 36 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 17L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.31 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 6W 5D 7L from 18 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 6W 3D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 games (1.31 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panetolikos away?
OFI's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.28 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.17 PPG.
Have OFI or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Panetolikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Panetolikos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 61%, Panetolikos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 56% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of OFI's games and 56% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 56% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panetolikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.02 xG and Panetolikos 0.96 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.92 / defence 1.19 against Panetolikos attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OFI 35% | Draw 33% | Panetolikos 32%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 50%, Panetolikos 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.31 PPG, Panetolikos 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.