OFI 0-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as OFI welcome Panathinaikos to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Pankritio Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.60 PPG versus Panathinaikos's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Panathinaikos have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against OFI's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Panathinaikos winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Panathinaikos have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Panathinaikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 65% | Panathinaikos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.62 xG and Panathinaikos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.201 / defence 0.942 | Panathinaikos attack 0.882 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.151. Data: 46 OFI games / 46 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 52% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Panathinaikos 4.55. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 40% | Panathinaikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 52% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG OFI 1.62 / Panathinaikos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.201 / def 0.942 | Panathinaikos attack 0.882 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: OFI (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Panathinaikos xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panathinaikos kick off?
OFI vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
OFI 0 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is OFI vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Panathinaikos part of?
OFI vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 52% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OFI and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Record (8 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 3 | Panathinaikos 4W.
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates OFI's attack at 1.20x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.87
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
OFI xG
Total xG
2.58
0.96
Panathinaikos xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
4%
23.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for OFI and 0.96 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 18W 9D 25L from 52 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 12L across 52 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 10W 4D 12L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panathinaikos's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.37 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 18W 9D 25L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 26W 14D 12L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.31 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.35 PPG.
Have OFI or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Panathinaikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Panathinaikos have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
3
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Panathinaikos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (OFI) and 46% (Panathinaikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 31%; OFI have failed to score in 27% of games; Panathinaikos in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 50% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of OFI's matches and 46% of Panathinaikos's.
Do OFI and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat OFI 0-2 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.62 xG and Panathinaikos 0.96 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.20 / defence 0.94 against Panathinaikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 52% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 22%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Panathinaikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 65%, Panathinaikos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.