OFI 0-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as OFI take on Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OFI and Lamia meet at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamia (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — OFI lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 56% versus Lamia 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 51% | Lamia 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.97 xG and Lamia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.963 / defence 1.165 | Lamia attack 0.717 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.134. Data: 34 OFI games / 34 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 36% | Lamia 31%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Lamia 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: OFI 60% | Lamia 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 36% | Lamia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG OFI 0.97 / Lamia 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.963 / def 1.165 | Lamia attack 0.717 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Lamia xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Lamia kick off?
OFI vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Lamia?
OFI 0 - 0 Lamia.
Where is OFI vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Lamia part of?
OFI vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 32% chance of winning, Lamia a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both OFI and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 1 | Lamia 1W.
What form are OFI and Lamia in?
OFI (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lamia's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.72x) against OFI's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
36%
2.77
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
OFI xG
Total xG
1.92
0.95
Lamia xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.0 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are OFI and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for OFI and 0.95 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 13D 16L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.90 PPG from 41 outings (8W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for OFI against 0.90 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 6W 6D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.68 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Lamia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 13D 16L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Lamia have gone 8W 13D 20L in their last 41 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Lamia away?
OFI's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.14 PPG; Lamia away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Lamia?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 67%, Lamia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (OFI) and 29% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 33%; Lamia in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of OFI's recent matches and 33% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of OFI's recent games and 29% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Lamia tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lamia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and Lamia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.97 xG and Lamia 0.95 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Lamia attack 0.72 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 32% | Draw 36% | Lamia 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 51%, Lamia 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.20 PPG, Lamia 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.