OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Pankritio Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (OFI) versus 1.90 (Aris Thessalonikis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for OFI, 5 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 66% | Aris Thessalonikis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 2.14 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.052 / defence 0.910 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.926 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.032. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 OFI games / 35 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 66% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 13%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Aris Thessalonikis 7.69. The model has a clear lean to OFI (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: OFI 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 66% | Draw 21% | Aris Thessalonikis 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG OFI 2.14 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.052 / def 0.910 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.926 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: OFI (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Aris Thessalonikis xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 66% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (10 meetings): OFI 4W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 5W.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
OFI (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.05) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.76
13%
7.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
OFI xG
Total xG
3.01
0.87
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
7.54
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
12%
8.49
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
2%
63.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for OFI and 0.87 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, OFI have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 17W 4D 20L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 16W 14D 11L from 41 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.34 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (11W 1D 8L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 4D 9L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.15 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 17W 4D 20L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 16W 14D 11L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
OFI's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.70 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 35%, Aris Thessalonikis 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (OFI) and 45% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of OFI's recent matches and 45% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of OFI's recent games and 45% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.