Levadiakos 0-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Levadiakos (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Volos NFC travel to Levadia Municipal Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Levadia Municipal Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Levadiakos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Levadiakos have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Levadiakos winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Levadiakos and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 47% versus Volos NFC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 58% | Volos NFC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.41 xG and Volos NFC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.716 / defence 1.201 | Volos NFC attack 1.005 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.001. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Levadiakos games / 32 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Volos NFC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | Volos NFC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Levadia Municipal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Levadiakos 1.41 / Volos NFC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.716 / def 1.201 | Volos NFC attack 1.005 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Volos NFC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Levadiakos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Levadia Municipal Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Levadiakos 0 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Municipal Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC part of?
Levadiakos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 40% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Levadiakos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
Record (9 meetings): Levadiakos 7W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 2W.
What form are Levadiakos and Volos NFC in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.31
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.62
1.21
Volos NFC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.21 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 15W 8D 15L from 38 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 22L across 38 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 10W 3D 6L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 4W 0D 15L across 19 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.03 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 7D 22L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Volos NFC away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.74 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levadiakos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Levadiakos
1
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 7, Volos NFC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 53%, Volos NFC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Levadiakos) and 58% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 26% of games; Volos NFC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 53% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Levadiakos's matches and 58% of Volos NFC's.
Do Levadiakos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Levadiakos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Volos NFC finished level at 0-0 at Levadia Municipal Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.41 xG and Volos NFC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Volos NFC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Volos NFC attack 1.00 / defence 1.34, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 40% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 30%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 58%, Volos NFC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.